22 April 2022
Beyond the substantial near-term humanitarian and economic costs, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the accompanying economic sanctions represent a rupture in the global economic system.
It will lead to an accelerated fragmentation of the global economy. We will see greater decoupling between major blocs, with trade and investment flows increasingly shaped by political considerations. This is the end of the beginning. After several years of skirmishing in the global system (eg trade wars), more pronounced structural change is underway. This will have major economic and political consequences in the Asia Pacific as well, and force hard strategic choices on countries and firms – including New Zealand.
Dr David Skilling is the founding Director of Landfall Strategy Group, an advisory firm that provides insights on global economic and geopolitical developments to governments, firms, and financial institutions. He is now based in the Netherlands after 11 years in Singapore.
David served as Senior Advisor to the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade between 2011 and 2015. Prior to founding Landfall Strategy Group in 2011, David was an Associate Principal with McKinsey & Company in Singapore and a Senior Fellow with the McKinsey Global Institute. Before joining McKinsey, David was the founding Chief Executive of the New Zealand Institute, a privately-funded, non-partisan think-tank. Until 2003, David was a Principal Advisor at the New Zealand Treasury.
David writes a widely read note on global economic and political issues from a small economy perspective (subscribe at https://davidskilling.substack.com).
David has a Ph.D. in Public Policy, and a Master in Public Policy degree, from Harvard University, as well as a Master of Commerce degree in Economics from the University of Auckland. David was named as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum in 2008.